We have a number of events in the pipeline and will be publishing full details and dates shortly, but the list below provides a flavour of the events we will be hosting.
Real Estate and Strategy: A new Chapter
Historically real estate firms have had little need for traditional corporate strategy, as a rising market, and leverage covered over any shortfalls. Now, however, with a structural change afoot in occupational patterns, and lower beta returns available firms and funds have to rethink their approach. We partner with the strategy team at Cass to provide a fresh insight into potential approaches.
Factors Affecting Loan Default Levels: A fresh examination
Research explores the impact of loan underwriting criteria in terms of LTV, DSCR, geography, loan size and choice of lender on expected loan default. The research is based on the Cass/De Montfort commercial real estate lending report 2007 – 2017. It finds that while the average 10 year default rate was 12 %, significant difference were found depending on type of lender resulting in a higher average default rate for investment banks (26%) compared to Building Societies (6%). The research also shows that other factors such as concentration in development lending and regional concentrations have a significant impact on expected loan default.
Identifying Turning Points in the Cycle
Following GFC there has been intense research on advance warnings for asset price developments and real time forecasts based on accurate and timely information. Such signals are generated by a variety of indicators including financial series, monetary variables and survey data. These indicators summarize expectations, sentiment and uncertainty in the market in a timely manner. This research assesses empirically the capacity of a range of indicators to predict forthcoming price changes and turning points in the commercial sector in the form of probabilistic forecasts. It represents a tool to accompany the ‘gut feel’ of the investor.
Capital Market Flows and their impact on market pricing
With overseas investment at all time high levels in conjunction with RCA we examine the impact of capital flows on market pricing, and the liquidity premium and risk involved.
Real Asset Funds
The term Real Assets is almost as widely (ab) used as Smart Beta. We examine the potential definitions, the investment universes available to meet the risk/return criteria, and how institutions are structuring funds to meet the demand for, and challenger of, this area.